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Home Prices Falling in 2 States Due to Housing Surplus

Too Many Homes, Too Few Buyers: Florida and Texas

The national housing market has been challenging for many buyers, with a shortage of homes and high prices keeping them on the sidelines. However, two states—Florida and Texas—are experiencing a different trend: there’s an oversupply of houses, leading to falling prices.

Homes Staying on the Market Longer

Redfin, a real estate brokerage, has reported that homes in Florida and Texas are sitting on the market longer as demand has shifted. Cape Coral and North Port in Florida have seen the most significant increase in homes for sale, with listings up about 50% in March compared to a year ago. Similarly, McAllen, Texas, saw a 25% increase in homes for sale during the same period.

Overbuilding and Changing Demand

These states have been aggressively building new homes to accommodate the influx of people during the pandemic. Eric Auciello, a Redfin sales manager in North Port, noted that two years ago, the area was one of the most competitive housing markets because of its affordability and shortage of homes. Now, that’s no longer the case, with price growth slowing down and buyers getting priced out.

Of the country’s 10 markets where sellers are most likely to cut prices, seven are in Florida and Texas. Auciello explained that out-of-town buyers no longer see Florida as a good value, choosing to move to places like North Carolina or Tennessee for better deals.

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The Insurance Crisis and Other Challenges

Florida’s real estate market is facing additional challenges due to a growing insurance crisis. A Redfin survey revealed that nearly three-quarters of homeowners have seen their insurance costs rise or their coverage change, adding to the concerns. This issue is particularly acute in areas prone to climate-related risks, where insurance costs are increasing.

First Street, a research organization, published a study in September that highlighted the potential impact of rising insurance costs on home values. The study warned that as premiums increase and some areas lose coverage, property values could suffer a significant decline.

“We’re at an inflection point,” Auciello said. “For luxury buyers, a high insurance bill might not be a big deal, but for someone buying a waterfront home on a budget, it can be a real problem.”

Impact of High Mortgage Rates

Another factor contributing to the changing housing market is the high mortgage rates, currently around 7%. These elevated rates have discouraged many homeowners from upgrading to a new home, contributing to the slowdown in the market.

Redfin reported that new listings nationwide dropped by 6% in March, marking the most significant decline since January 2022. Despite this, the median US sale price has increased by 5% compared to the previous year, reaching $420,357, which is only 3% below the record-high of $432,496.

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